Components
Three components are measured every 5 minutes for each coin and each side. Each is a plain formula; none is proprietary.
- Volatility
- The 14-period ATR of 1-minute candles, as a percentage of price. The same for LONG and SHORT: turbulence hurts both sides.
- Crowding
- Where the current funding rate sits among the coin's recent funding prints (a percentile). High funding means longs are crowded; for SHORT the sign is flipped, so low funding counts as crowded shorts.
- Extension 4 h
- The price change over the last 4 hours, measured in 1-hour ATRs. An upward extension counts against LONG; for SHORT the sign is flipped.
Earlier candidates — spread, top-trader long/short ratio, taker flow, move age, short extensions, volume ratio, 1-hour open-interest change — were measured in the founding run and dropped because they did not separate adverse outcomes.
How the score is built
- Each component is converted to a percentile within the same coin, over that coin's own history of 5-minute snapshots (up to 90 days). Ties share the middle rank.
- The three percentiles are averaged with equal weight: the composite.
- The composite itself is ranked within the same coin and side over the same history. That rank, times 100, is the score (0–100).
- The score is rounded to one decimal before it is classified, so a displayed 80.0 is always HIGH.
How HIGH is defined
The score is written Risk Score N/100: riskier to enter than N% of that coin's own moments. Not a probability. Because it is measured against each coin's own history, the thresholds mean the same thing for every coin:
| State | Score | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 80.0 – 100 | Risk Score 80/100 or above: the coin's own riskiest 20% of moments (history up to 90 days) |
| ELEVATED | 60.0 – 79.9 | the next 20 % |
| NORMAL | 0 – 59.9 | the rest |
NORMAL is not "safe". It means this moment is not among the roughest fifth for that coin.
Profiles and labels
| Profile | Horizon | Adverse level | Scored sides |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scalp | 60 min | −1 % | LONG and SHORT |
| Intraday | 8 h | −2 % | LONG and SHORT |
| Daily | 24 h | −3 % | LONG and SHORT |
A moment is labelled "adverse touch" when price, on 1-minute highs and lows, reaches the adverse level against the scored side before the horizon ends. Every minute of the horizon is used; a label is written 7 minutes after the horizon, once the last 1-minute bar is stored. The label is only known once the horizon has closed, which is why a day's ledger entry becomes final only after 24 hours.
Score v1.0 showed no score for SHORT on the 8-hour and 24-hour profiles ("Measuring"). Score v1.1 scores all six combinations; the Jan–Sep 2026 recomputation behind that decision is on the Evidence page.
Base risk
For every coin, side and profile we also show how often the adverse level was touched over the coin's last 90 days, whatever the score. It varies a lot between coins — a quiet large cap and a volatile small cap can differ by more than ten times on the same profile.
Windows and guards
- Rolling 90-day window of 5-minute snapshots (about 25,900 per coin), recomputed every 5 minutes. From the v1.1 start the window is filled with the recomputed Jul–Sep history; live snapshots always replace recomputed ones for the same moments.
- A component needs at least 24 hours of history; a coin with less is shown as warming up, not scored.
- A coin whose latest snapshot is more than 12 minutes behind the newest one is shown as late; its score is held, never estimated.
Founding measurement
Sep 26–29, 2026: 14,611 snapshots across 19 coins, the first in-sample check of score v1.0. It is superseded by the Jan–Sep 2026 recomputation with the v1.1 rules on the Evidence page.
Limitations
- Rates are historical. A HIGH state describes how similar moments went before; it is not a probability for the next one.
- A single day and side can be a small sample. Read the ledger over weeks.
- Exchange outages and late data are marked; scores are held, never estimated.
- Only Binance USDT-M perpetuals are covered.
Score versions
Every ledger entry records the score version that produced it. Changing a formula creates a new version; old entries are never recomputed.
| Version | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|
| v1.0 | 2026-09-29 | Founding release. Three components, 30-day within-coin ranks, HIGH = the coin's own top 20 %. |
| v1.1 | SEED9 deploy | Within-coin window 90 days (all three components and the composite); SHORT scored on the 8-hour and 24-hour profiles. Everything else unchanged. |
Data sources
Binance public market-data endpoints only: 1-minute and 1-hour candles, funding rates, open interest and top of book. No private endpoints, no account data.
What we do not do
- We never ask for exchange API keys.
- We never place, suggest or size orders, and never tell you to open or close a position.
- We never give investment advice.
- We never publish money figures — rates and counts only.